Manchester City are unlikely to face automatic relegation down the football pyramid if found guilty of the 115 charges against them, according to football finance expert Kieran Maguire.
The club's protracted legal dispute with the Premier League remains unresolved, despite an independent hearing having concluded. City face allegations of breaching financial regulations between 2009 and 2018.
They have consistently denied any wrongdoing and, while commonly referred to as 115 charges, there could be as many as 130 potential offences. During the period in question, between 2009 and 2018, City secured three Premier League titles.
In December, City released their latest financial report, which acknowledged the ongoing wait for the independent commission's verdict, reports the Liverpool Echo. It stated: "On 6 February 2023, in accordance with Premier League Rule W.82.1, the Premier League referred a number of alleged breaches of the Premier League Rules by Manchester City Football Club to a Commission under Premier League Rule W.3.4.
"In response to the charges, the club issued a public statement that it welcomes the review of this matter by an independent commission to impartially consider the comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists in support of its position. As at the date of publishing these financial statements, the independent commission is still in the process of reviewing the matter."
Speculation surrounding possible sanctions has been rife since the charges were initially revealed, with some suggesting City could face demotion as far as League Two or even the National League. Nevertheless, Maguire reckons a significant points deduction is the more likely scenario, given the contrasting regulations between the Premier League and English Football League.
"If there are 115 charges against Man City, then Man City must put 115 defences, so that's going to involve 100s and 1000s pieces of evidence," he said. "If you take a look at the cases against [Nottingham] Forest and Everton, which were relatively narrow and effectively one charge from the Premier League, there were tens of thousands of pieces of evidence submitted by the Premier League and the clubs during that particular hearing.
"Also, the charges against Man City are much more serious than those we saw, which resulted in points deductions for Everton and Forest. For City, it's effectively an allegation of fraud - the Premier League alleges it received money from the owner and disguised it as sponsorship income.
"That's a very serious offence. You have to have fairly overwhelming evidence of guilt because it's a very significant allegation, and it's taking a lot of time, as there are three people on the independent commission.
"They are not working together every day because they are incredibly successful in their own walks of life, so they don't have a lot of time - and might just be getting together just a few times a month because they've got existing work commitments. Therefore, it's a very slow process.
I suspect that the Premier League is regretting making 115 charges; they could have chosen the ones they felt they had the strongest case for and, on the back of that, we would have had a verdict by now. If you take a look at the verdicts in the hearings against Everton and Forest, the one thing that became very clear was that if a football club has been involved in activities that, as a result, have given them an advantage on the pitch - i.e from overspending or hiding costs - these were the cases that were proven by the commissions against those clubs.
"They were both given a points deduction. Now, the charges against Man City cover a nine-year period, rather than just a single PSR calculation. Therefore, they would have to be a significant multiple-point deduction, adding a zero or more, so 40-60 points. Could that be viable? Yes, it could. Could it be more? Absolutely.
"But because the Premier League and the EFL are independent of one another, there's no way the Premier League can say they're going to relegate Man City to League Two because they've got no power over what happens in the EFL. From the EFL point of view, having Man City in the Championship would be a huge asset, with significant interest.
"I suspect that, because of the way the English football system is set up with the three governing bodies (the FA, the Premier League and the EFL), the Premier League cannot impose a punishment that the EFL must take on. So it has to be a points deduction - and if that results in relegation, then the EFL would be obliged to accept Man City into the Championship next season."
